CORONAVIRUS: IS SHUT-DOWN THE BEST POLICY?
Every country has opted for total isolation of its populace, with the exception of vital services, and this is the logical reaction to a rabid virus, in our brief experience of pandemics in our era of technology.
To isolate and quarantine infection is a proven safeguard against the uncontrolled spread of communicable disease, and is the accepted reaction to an epidemic. But could it be a disastrous long-term plan where a pandemic is concerned; that is, world-wide, affecting everyone on the planet? Could shutting-down an economy have a worse result?
Where a pandemic, left unchecked, kills a calculable percentage of a population, that is, with no quarantine process, is there a possibly better outcome in the long run? Supposing a pandemic were proven to cause the death of, say, ten percent of the people, with statistics relating to age, health, et cetera: supposing all services, businesses and jobs continued without restriction, supposing emergency hospital services were increased to cope, what, then, would be the outcome?
Ten percent death-rate could be absorbed in an economy with ease, particularly if the attrition affected the aged and infirm to a greater extent. This horrific and apparently callous consideration may be the saviour of the entire economy of a country, and hence its survival to prosper into the future.
Those survivors would of course be immune to further spread of the disease, and once the epidemic has run its course, the country, its population and economy will be in excellent shape, and better for the loss of the more dependent members of the community. I know, I know; a terrible, cruel prognostication. But consider the possible outcome of our current plans.
We have a consensus, unquestioned, and it is to isolate and quarantine all those tested positive to Corona Virus; isolate, and bury those who succumb without the comfort and proximity of loved-ones. So cruel, so necessary if quarantine is the path followed. This is the situation right now, world-wide. This is what is happening, and it is a logical, considered, plan. Isolate every individual for the duration, come what may.
Having accepted this plan, what are the effects, as the weeks and months pass? It is the hope that the virus will be contained, that cases will diminish until a point is reached where a decision can be made, country by country, to open the industries and send people back to work, to re-start the economy. But a great hope is reliant on such a revival.
As the weeks and months pass, certain industries can be temporarily be mothballed, and certain must be constantly maintained and operational: power, water, food, transport of goods must be always available, and people must run these industries. Housing must be guaranteed, rent-free if necessary.
We see the awful loss of hope of the entrepeneurs running small businesses, who must put off staff and close the doors, while the clock ticks on the viability of their enterprise: a point is reached when they must walk away, accept the inevitable. As time passes more and more businesses must pass the point of no return with no possibility of re-opening the doors. Isolation and lock-down of a whole population may be a state from which there may be no recovery. The longer the quarantine, the less likely the recovery. The people may survive, but the economy may fail: then what? Currently (March 26 2020) a span of six months of isolation has been mentioned: just how many employers will survive to re-hire their staff?
The fact is; this is NOT a lock-down, and cannot ever be. Food must be produced, farms kept running, power stations manned, fuel available. Transport is vital to feed the population and essential services. So many supplies must be maintained, so many workers kept employed, hospitals, clinics, transport agencies can NOT close. So much for isolation and quarantine.
The majority of workers will run out of funds very quickly. Rents must be negotiated. Massive billion-dollar government support is right now being planned, but time is of the essence: how long will this situation apply? How long will funds last, and most importantly, how many jobs will still be available if and when the quarantine is lifted? Is the economy being sacrificed to the current policy of shut-down? The quicker the lifting of isolation policy, the better the recovery. The longer the forced stagnation continues, the less viable the recovery. Have we chosen the right path?
Epidemics kill by percentages: some die, some survive. What is the percentage of survival right now? What are the different outcomes resulting from our current action, and no action? Will suitable immunisation be found, and when? Supposing the percentages are very different; then what? The end of the world as we know it? This outcome has been considered time and time again. We’ve had a good run, as the human race, from our isolated tribal beginnings, but we are now one international global battery-farm; no-one is isolated, we all get whatever is going.
Above all, food-production must be kept going, and the transport and customer-delivery infrastructure operating. The population must have inalienable right to their chosen address, and all individual financial obligations must be put on hold for the duration, whatever that might be. Is this all possible? Magnificent, if it can be done. We would, in a happy virus-free future, return to a much-altered, egalitarian society……..for a while! (Meanwhile, I notice the police have as a priority, enforcing traffic fines.)
Curious and worrying times, and time will tell. I feel the urge to hug my friends and neighbours: bugger the consequences. Isolation is not what humans do, but I’ll follow the trend, for now. But I’d hate to exit isolated, and lonely, and despairing, as many of us are doing as I write. How can we comfort and tend our dying friends and family under these arbitrary rules? How can I, one moment, walk into isolation and death without one look, one touch, one embrace from my loved ones? This is no way to end our days. This is the way dictated by statistics to limit deaths due to virus. To sacrifice the few for the many. Now, which path is the most humane, the most sympathetic? It is a numbers game, and we are the numbers. Perhaps, while we can, while we are so far un-condemned, we should bugger the rules and get out to say a hopeful au-revoir to all those dear to us, even if they stand open-armed, one and a half metres away. Til we meet again, one way or another……..
The ramifications resulting from on-going decisions are unknown. New rules, laws, fines restrictions are proliferating day by day, with no consideration of long-term effects. Every government decision is arbitrary and changing constantly; rules to the game are being made and re-made. Just today, I can not visit relatives interstate: I could yesterday. Catch-up is remarkably fast and accelerating, which is gratifying if correct. We watch this space.