Tag Archives: Isolation

MAIL FROM QUEENSLAND TO WALES: LOCK-DOWN ECONOMY.

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Dear Eilwen

Are you and Thomas yet surviving? I hope so and wish you both well.

Do you find it strange that this plague has come upon us in what is in truth our old age? I picture myself fifty years ago in Brisbane, on a knife-edge of debt with wife and four children to feed, with only a tenuous life-line of employment……..how the hell would the family have coped in this present situation?

How will similar families survive today, as the weeks go past?

I seriously question the new police-state clamp-down here. Is the same happening to you? I know the blow-ins inhabiting their holiday-homes are being discouraged: is this being enforced in Wales?  Here in Queensland  they face fines and are being turned back, perhaps to avoid introducing the virus to isolated rural or coastal areas and over-loading local supplies. But legally outrageous, virus or no, to forbid owners to occupy their own properties, no matter how distasteful it may seem. The situation cannot apply in the Channel Islands, where outsiders may not purchase local housing. A very wise policy which could have been adopted in Wales………local housing for local people.

My lovely gentle eldest son visited Luly and me yesterday, bringing boxes of the most superb home-brew. How could I not give him the family hug? We took a deep breath, turned our heads away, and grabbed a brief clutch! This current stand-off, (literally), sensible though it may be from a virus-transfer state, is awfully unnatural to us hug-deprived humans. There was a strange time, long ago, when families from England inherited a no-touch habit of stiffupperlipping their dear older children, and so strong was that in-bred fashion that I dragged it to Australia, unthinking. Until one day, it dawned, if I don’t give these big boys a hug soon, it will become too embarrassingly late, and we’ll have to make-do with that terribly cool British hand-shaking, of our own children. Well, at first it was a bit giggly-queer for them, coming out of the blue, but soon it caught on mutually, and spread to friends and rellies with great rapidity. But I remember my old mates being rather shocked at first, then pleased and coy, then enthusiastic! Such a relief to finally be Italian!

Now after all that lovely break-away from staid English stand-off (There’s a mouthful), we Aussies are back to the dark ages. What do you think?

I know, it’s a small price to pay in the death-lottery, but the insidious extension of  this to policing $1,500 fines to solitary beach-goers and surfers is madness, and it’s happening right now, here. Somehow (I’ve yet to find out) vehicles are being stopped and the drivers fined for traveling! Non-existent borders here are now check-points for huge fines, and turning-back of traffic.

I wondered how the situation would cope with the massively-costly employment of police and bureaucracy, when millions of genuine workers are sacked and desperate. Now we know. More laws, rules, fines, harassment: more power, and I hate the direction the state is taking.

If we can go to the shop, surely we can go to the beach? From home, to beach, and back……..is now banned, ha ha, in Australia! Such is the power of the state. Car-travel poses no danger of itself. But we must stay at home and go mad and broke while the economy crashes beyond all repair, and there will never be full employment again, and the country is irretrievably debt-ridden. I foresee a dreadful outcome of this apparently-sensible isolation-policy.

The policy may well have a worse result than the un-checked virus. A high death-rate of mostly un-productive population (me), versus a defunct economy, mass-unemployment and inevitable anarchy as people starve and all technology crashes.

Am I stupid Eilwen to think like this? Is there one viable country to not instigate this lock-down, so we can see how they fare compared to the rest of us? I don’t think so.

Oops, I’m mail-bashing you! Will you forgive me? I get carried away! And there’s more I have to say!

What are folk thinking in Wales? Here in Queensland all is calm (before the storm?) and quiescent  so far, but we don’t have that tribal obedience of the Chinese, and may soon reach a breaking-point. Possibly. I don’t know; I can’t see folk putting-up with this lock-down indefinitely. Six months, a year, more? And broke, and homeless, and harassed? And the shelves empty? My bills from multi-national providers still come with bold regularity: no respite there.

And all those with huge house-loans, and income suddenly stopped? All these transactions we constantly make rely entirely on our jobs and income. And all those new-age ‘landlords’ who have ‘invested’ in a rental property, or perhaps multiple properties, and will not reach free title to them for decades: no rent, no repayments, foreclosure and loss. The lenders acquire the houses, the debts continue. How can the new landlords reduce or waive rents? I can’t see the tenants remaining in possession under those circumstances. No rent, no home. Who will pay?

Those first-home buyers, if they are out of work: will they be kicked-out of their expensive investment when their repayments stop, and lose all they have put into into their loans? And still, homeless, owe the balance between loan and sale-value? This is what happens now; how will that change?

At this very moment the value of any real-estate is declining. All sales are slowing. It seems a crash is inevitable, and certainly values have for fifty years been massively inflated, city land at a premium. A collapsing economy will burst that bubble. ‘Investment’, always a gamble, has been a  winner for a lifetime, but there has never been a guarantee. The check is about to happen, and this isolating shut-down will bring the house down, and throw the baby out with the bathwater. Does the government not realise this?

Even in my lifetime, I have seen a stagnant real-estate market culminating in a 25% drop in values. A comparatively small decline in value and duration, nevertheless it sent quite a few keen ‘investors’ broke, losing the family home and income. I use quotes because the word should always be ‘gamblers’.

Supposing, once all the new daily cases of virus cease, and we are released from jail, supposing it all starts again? There can be no second lock-down; neither the population nor the economy (should there be one) could stand it.

Day by day we face radical change in our outlook. One would hope that there are teams of wise folk involved in think-tanks around the planet, looking ahead, envisioning the results of government policy and advising incremental adjustments by the hour as this new and strange regime continues. However, I suspect there is little consideration taking place, just ill-educated politicians taking a punt. The medicos are on the ball, at least.

I still want to know. Who will tell me; who can guess the percentage of us would die of this contagion if it were left unchecked? And how would that figure differ from the current outcome? We know those at risk, and it is us unproductive old bastards who have had our day and should bow out gracefully and leave the world intact for our youth. Intact and fully operational, and not defunct beyond repair. A sad thought when the garden is so beautiful.

Weird times. I have to tend my poor buggered avos in a few days time, and repair the old tractor: will I be threatened by the police on my 200km journey? Fined and turned back? My hope is for good rain, no frost, fungus or bugs, and a beaut next harvest to help feed us all, in a small way.

There’s talk of a renaissance of the old manufacturing technology in Australia. Hard to believe that once we made railway trains and buses and ships and cars, and designed and built cutting-edge agricultural equipment. We have the raw materials and technology, and the expertise and work-force. Self-sufficient and fully-employed! Wow. With luck we’ll be clear of the virus before other economies and get started. Multi-nationalism has its severe draw-backs, despite what the bankers say.

It has been depressing to see this country descend to a third-world exporter of raw materials, at the expense of entrepeneurial manufacturing and research. We have been living on the crusts thrown to us from the vast profits of multinationals, and now perhaps may face the consequences of this dependence. Here is an opportunity to sack the policy-makers and engage the engineers and designers. And own our natural resources.

This virus may give us the opportunity to get to work, to look to countries like Sweden and Denmark and follow their lead; we have far more resources. Just no brains.

Meanwhile, the garden beckons, there’s ‘lawn’ to mow and delicious beer to drink, and nice neighbours to wave at. And hopefully your days are warming, and a calm morning will see the boat out for testing in those icy Welsh waters: will you go aboard? Catch a few fish? Will you be allowed to actually do that, even? Weird times…….

Love to both, hope the rant is not verging on rudeness, and hope too that my opinions are wrong on all counts, and bliss is just around the corner for us all,

Andy

COVID-19, NOVEL CORONAVIRUS: Isolate, quarantine, or business-as-usual?

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CORONAVIRUS: IS SHUT-DOWN THE BEST POLICY?

Every country has opted for total isolation of its populace, with the exception of vital services, and this is the logical reaction to a rabid virus, in our brief experience of pandemics in our era of technology.

To isolate and quarantine infection is a proven safeguard against the uncontrolled spread of communicable disease, and is the accepted reaction to an epidemic. But could it be a disastrous long-term plan where a pandemic is concerned; that is, world-wide, affecting everyone on the planet? Could shutting-down an economy have a worse result?

Where a pandemic, left unchecked, kills a calculable percentage of a population, that is, with no quarantine process, is there a possibly better outcome in the long run? Supposing a pandemic were proven to cause the death of, say, ten percent of the people, with statistics relating to age, health, et cetera: supposing all services, businesses and jobs continued without restriction, supposing emergency hospital services were increased to cope, what, then, would be the outcome?

Ten percent death-rate could be absorbed in an economy with ease, particularly if the attrition affected the aged and infirm to a greater extent. This horrific and apparently callous consideration may be the saviour of the entire economy of a country, and hence its survival to prosper into the future.

Those survivors would of course be immune to further spread of the disease, and once the epidemic has run its course, the country, its population and economy will be in excellent shape, and better for the loss of the more dependent members of the community. I know, I know; a terrible, cruel prognostication. But consider the possible outcome of our current plans.

We have a consensus, unquestioned, and it is to isolate and quarantine all those tested positive to Corona Virus; isolate, and bury those who succumb without the comfort and proximity of loved-ones. So cruel, so necessary if quarantine is the path followed. This is the situation right now, world-wide. This is what is happening, and it is a logical, considered, plan. Isolate every individual for the duration, come what may.

Having accepted this plan, what are the effects, as the weeks and months pass? It is the hope that the virus will be contained, that cases will diminish until a point is reached where a decision can be made, country by country, to open the industries and send people back to work, to re-start the economy. But a great hope is reliant on such a revival.

As the weeks and months pass, certain industries can be temporarily be mothballed, and certain must be constantly maintained and operational: power, water, food, transport of goods must be always available, and people must run these industries. Housing must be guaranteed, rent-free if necessary.

We see the awful loss of hope of the entrepeneurs running small businesses, who must put off staff and close the doors, while the clock ticks on the viability of their enterprise: a point is reached when they must walk away, accept the inevitable. As time passes more and more businesses must pass the point of no return with no possibility of re-opening the doors. Isolation and lock-down of a whole population may be a state from which there may be no recovery. The longer the quarantine, the less likely the recovery. The people may survive, but the economy may fail: then what? Currently (March 26 2020) a span of six months of isolation has been mentioned: just how many employers will survive to re-hire their staff?

The fact is; this is NOT a lock-down, and cannot ever be. Food must be produced, farms kept running, power stations manned, fuel available. Transport is vital to feed the population and essential services. So many supplies must be maintained, so many workers kept employed, hospitals, clinics, transport agencies can NOT close. So much for isolation and quarantine.

The majority of workers will run out of funds very quickly. Rents must be negotiated. Massive billion-dollar government support is right now being planned, but time is of the essence: how long will this situation apply? How long will funds last, and most importantly, how many jobs will still be available if and when the quarantine is lifted? Is the economy being sacrificed to the current policy of shut-down? The quicker the lifting of isolation policy, the better the recovery. The longer the forced stagnation continues, the less viable the recovery. Have we chosen the right path?

Epidemics kill by percentages: some die, some survive. What is the percentage of survival right now? What are the different outcomes resulting from our current action, and no action? Will suitable immunisation be found, and when? Supposing the percentages are very different; then what? The end of the world as we know it? This outcome has been considered time and time again. We’ve had a good run, as the human race, from our isolated tribal beginnings, but we are now one international global battery-farm; no-one is isolated, we all get whatever is going.

Above all, food-production must be kept going, and the transport and customer-delivery infrastructure operating. The population must have inalienable right to their chosen address, and all individual financial obligations must be put on hold for the duration, whatever that might be. Is this all possible? Magnificent, if it can be done. We would, in a happy virus-free future, return to a much-altered, egalitarian society……..for a while! (Meanwhile, I notice the police have as a priority, enforcing traffic fines.)

Curious and worrying times, and time will tell. I feel the urge to hug my friends and neighbours: bugger the consequences. Isolation is not what humans do, but I’ll follow the trend, for now. But I’d hate to exit isolated, and lonely, and despairing, as many of us are doing as I write. How can we comfort and tend our dying friends and family under these arbitrary rules? How can I, one moment, walk into isolation and death without one look, one touch, one embrace from my loved ones? This is no way to end our days. This is the way dictated by statistics to limit deaths due to virus. To sacrifice the few for the many. Now, which path is the most humane, the most sympathetic? It is a numbers game, and we are the numbers. Perhaps, while we can, while we are so far un-condemned, we should bugger the rules and get out to say a hopeful au-revoir to all those dear to us, even if they stand open-armed, one and a half metres away. Til we meet again, one way or another……..

The ramifications resulting from on-going decisions are unknown. New rules, laws, fines restrictions are proliferating day by day, with no consideration of long-term effects. Every government decision is arbitrary and changing constantly; rules to the game are being made and re-made. Just today, I can not visit relatives interstate: I could yesterday. Catch-up is remarkably fast and accelerating, which is gratifying if correct. We watch this space.