SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING and THE QUEENSLAND DROUGHT. First published Nov 8 2019.
The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event over the Antarctic Region is the likely cause of the current Prolonged Weather Stasis affecting the central latitudes of Australia.
Predicted about three months ago by the Met Office as lasting until ‘Possibly January or February 2020′ this event continues to suppress rainfall generally, despite the occasional local showers giving false hope to those recipients.
My previous blog on the subject outlines the possible effect of Prolonged Weather Stasis, or PWS, on Queensland drought. Sadly the predictions are so far becoming reality for rural townships, graziers and all farmers within the affected zone, which includes most of the coastal fringe excepting the far North and South, and Tasmania; these areas may actually receive more than average rainfall.
As I wrote previously, graziers are de-stocking cattle at an alarming rate, of necessity, there being no feed. Dairy farmers likewise are downsizing, every dry day bringing disaster closer. These are the initial preventative measures in a situation which is daily becoming worse, and these are the businesses which are first affected. As PWS continues, more and more ventures and industries will be forced to close, an accelerating cascade of unemployment throughout the community, as inter-dependent services collapse.
City-dwellers are far from exempt. Critical to the well-being of our communities is the level of water in the dams. At present we have excellent storage in the major dams, and should this tide us over until rain resumes we should thank the original planners and designers for their foresight. If rain events do not resume, diminishing dam levels will become a nightmare for us all, with no viable solution except drastic rationing. Should even that fail, the last option, which should be implemented immediately, right now, Friday the Eighth of November, is the building of coastal de-salination plants: hundreds of them.
De-salination has successfully provided water for coastal market-garden greenhouses, utilising evaporation and condensation of piped sea-water direct to the growers, returning the salt-rich brine to the ocean.
Households can subsist on a relatively tiny water supply…..after severe education and rabid policing, but industry and essential services need massive quantities, which may simply not be available. Think of the staggering volume required by breweries, shock, horror. But this is serious. Industries, to remain viable, must oust residential areas from our coastline in order to operate on desalinated water, though pipelines may span distance. This situation is, of course, going to cost everyone.
As I write, dam levels are dropping. If my forward-planning is a false alarm, so be it. A double pipeline was constructed years ago to pump treated sewage-water from Luggage Point to Tarong Power Station. Excellent fore-sight for exactly this situation.
Well, not this situation exactly, for we may be on the cusp of suffering a far worse outcome. An open-ended Queensland drought.
The weeks pass. The rainy season approaches, many believe, and hold their breath. A month or so and we’ll be at Mid-Summer. We may wait and hope, but action is needed immediately, for this year, The Rains may never arrive. Then what will we do?
Politicians flutter and seem to not be aware of the catastrophe facing huge areas of the country. All are currently and rightly horrified at the fire-devastation which can never be controlled, and may affect every community within cooee of a tree, or a paddock. But this is just the initial sign of worse to come, although having your house burned down is pretty bad. Once the trees have gone there will be a period of realisation, as townships, one after the other become no longer viable: no water supply. No farm. No industry. No job. No mortgage repayments. Shops with very expensive food. The thought-process of extrapolation from events happening right now are very scary, although we watch the nightly news with comfortable trepidation. Soon each of us may be directly affected; time will tell, but really, there’s little we can do to help ourselves, and nothing we can do to change the weather.